NEW YORK, Oct 5 (Reuters) – Surging U.S. real yields are aiding the dollar’s rebound, rewarding bullish investors while making bears think twice before betting against the buck.
The real yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries – which measure how much investors stand to make on U.S. government bonds after inflation is stripped out – hit 2.47% on Tuesday, the highest in nearly 15 years, according to data from the U.S. Treasury Department.
That has made betting on the U.S. currency more profitable, since bullish investors can collect yield while sitting on their dollar positions. The dollar is up 7% from its 2023 lows against a basket of currencies and stands at a 10-month high.
At the same time, climbing real yields make it more expensive to bet against the dollar. Bearish investors establishing short positions must pay more to borrow the currency.
Dollar positioning in futures markets showed a net long of $3.07 billion for the week ended Sept. 26, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That was a sharp reversal from a short position of $21.28 billion earlier this year.
“The dollar isn’t just the nicest house in a bad neighborhood right now, it’s the only game in town,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto. With real yields pushing higher, “only the bravest of traders are willing to bet against the greenback,” he said.
Source: Reuters