H.R. McMaster, former national security adviser to President Trump, discussed the potential strategies Trump may employ in handling Russia’s war in Ukraine if he returns to the White House. McMaster believes Trump’s unpredictability could have prevented Russia’s invasion in 2022, as Putin might have hesitated to act under a leader like Trump. However, McMaster cautioned that we can never know for certain.
McMaster advised against Ukraine negotiating with Russia at this stage. He emphasized the importance of providing Ukraine with full support, including military capabilities, to resist Russia’s sustained offensive. He argued that now is a critical moment to give Ukraine the necessary tools to defend itself and to overcome both military and psychological pressures.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s request for advanced missiles to strike deep within Russia raised questions about Trump’s response. While McMaster suggested Trump might approve strikes on military targets, he expressed concern that Trump could still lean toward a diplomatic approach, hoping for some form of understanding with Putin, despite the need for strength to deter Russian aggression.
The key concern for Ukraine’s future under Trump is whether he will force Ukraine to negotiate unfavorable terms or reduce military aid. McMaster hopes Trump won’t take these steps, warning that pressuring Ukraine for concessions could undermine the war effort and misunderstand the dynamics of military conflict.
McMaster emphasized that Russia’s weakness should not be underestimated. While Putin retains some military capabilities, his regime is fragile, with internal challenges and a growing reliance on foreign mercenaries. McMaster believes that strong resistance from the West could lead to Russian retreat, and that the stakes of the conflict involve preventing a larger global war, particularly with China’s alignment with Russia in this conflict.